If Society grows great when wise men plant trees then it’s not a stretch to think that Society decays when greedy men cut those trees down without taking the time to plant for future Generations.
And worse they let it all burn in the process in the last 40 years have been a cocaine fueled orgy of quick profits and fast living.
And how could it not result in destroying the value and hard work of older Generations while also robbing future generations of the same benefits even more hazardous are the painful symptoms that come along with declining Society.
This is the story of the decline of the American Empire and how it’s impacting the people that live within it. If you were to look at The American Nation what is the trajectory that leads to the collapse of the American Empire well all of those indicators are concerning that was Ray Dalio billionaire and founder of the world’s largest macro Edge fund.
He’s the most credible Source on the topic of American decline having written a book on the topic himself his hedge fund Bridgewater owns a proprietary algorithm that tracks everything going on in the world and can more or less predict the future taking from his hedge fund.
Link to Ray Dalio’s Book: Principles for a Changing World Order
The Rise and Fall of Empires
Dalio also studied thousands of years of human history and the decline of major civilizations throughout time. He found that each Empire repeated the same mistakes and similar events occurred this graphic is what Dalio calls the big cycle.
You can see in the picture below, America is currently in the printing money and high debt phase which is typically followed by War and revolutions so it’s safe to say none of this is looking good to look at the data household debt is soaring on the fastest Pace in 15 years.
Debt Crisis
Credit card balances Rose more than 15 percent in 2021 alone meanwhile savings are down 88 from 2020 meaning people are not only depleting their savings but rely lying on credit to live. In a span of 40 years we went from a society where one person’s modest Factory income could sustain a decent life for an entire family all the way to a society where both parents must work to barely make ends meet.
Obesity Crisis
People are getting poorer and ugly symptoms of a decaying Society have emerged. For example 41.9 percent of adults in America have obesity which contributes to approximately 280 000 deaths each year. In part, obesity ravages the poor because processed food is cheap but also because processed food is simply more profitable for these big corporations to make.
To date processed food makes up close to 70 percent of the US diet all to processed food for instance contain high fructose corn syrup hydrogenated oils and artificial flavors that all make them high in salt sugar and fat.
Income and Wealth Inequality
An Empire on the rise is typically marked by increasing health and life expectancy that continues to rise and America is doing just the opposite. The average life expectancy for Americans fell sharply again last year in 2021 marking the largest two-year decline in nearly a hundred years not only are Americans living shorter less healthy lives but both income and wealth inequality are greater than they were at the height of the French Revolution.
So what does that look like in numbers?
In America the income ratio of the 90th to 10th percentile increase from 12.9 in 2020 to 13.53 in 2021. This means that the top 10 percent of earners make 13.5 times as much as the bottom 10.
And if that wasn’t big enough know that the top one percent of families own nearly a third of all wealth in America, and the top ten percent own sixty percent of the wealth, and the other ninety percent of Americans own only 32 percent of the entire pie.
Inflation and Affordability Crisis
At the same time that people are being pumped full of processed foods and deprived of income, inflation is making it more difficult than ever to afford necessities.
Food prices are up 10 in 12 months since October 2021 and energy 20%. Some items are up as much as ninety percent like food at work and school, and others are up forty percent like airline tickets.
On top of hard to afford necessities, Americans are faced with a new struggle with the homeownership crisis. The average home to income ratio in America is 7.6–the highest level of all time. It’s even greater than the 2008 recession. This puts the American dream Outreach for the majority of Young Americans.
Fertility Crisis
Ray Dalio, yourself the reader, and I are not the only people who are noticing these trends some of the more informed younger Americans are deciding against having children all together seeing them more as a luxury good like a Louis Vuitton that only the rich can afford. The total fertility rate, which is a measure of the expected number of children a woman will, have declined to a record low of 1.64 during the pandemic.
To maintain a population a country needs a fertility rate of at least 2.1 this means there will be less workers to support an aging population and contribute to Social Security. This is a topic that Elon Musk has sounded the alarm on personally saying that Society will crumble if people don’t have more children.
Deaths of Despair
It certainly doesn’t help that deaths of Despair are increasing steadily due partly to the opioid academic but also because suicides are increasing through the roof in America.
Where This Leads
All of these negative signals indicate a deep systematic unraveling in American society and by themselves they are concerning enough, but take into account the political corruption and people’s distrust of Institutions and you get a recipe for disaster.
As Dalio notes the typical indicators leading up to Civil War and a reorganization of Power are marked by huge debt balances, political corruption, and income inequality.
But there is one other thing that has to be present in order for an Empire to collapse and that is the presence of another Rising nation that is becoming powerful enough that could fight for legitimacy to displace the current world power.
Unfortunately that presence is very much there for America. We are speaking of China in this instance. The penultimate world power in the east.
From here, there are two paths that the United States can take.
One is a path where we unwind inflation, unwind Consumer Debt, elect less corrupt officials, and relieve income inequality. It will by no means be easy but it can be done.
As Jeff Bezos says in his final letter to Amazon shareholders: democracies are not normal. In fact, “tyranny is the historical norm and if we stopped doing all of the continuous hard work that is needed to maintain our distinctiveness in that regard we would quickly come into equilibrium with tyranny “.
This idea comes from the blind watchmaker written by Richard Dawkins. And the idea leads us to the second path that the country can take:
Saddled with debt and anger, people grow weary and tired of the inequality, the lacking resources, and declining health, and they devolve into a society that’s not built on trust.
Trust is the foundation of a high performing society that conducts nuanced business through complex legal contracts. Without trust, many industries cannot function.
Meanwhile other nations have the opportunity to increase their GDP output and advance as a civilization. Making them a ripe candidate for the world leader if America wanes in power.
Let’s hope that America continues to make improvements and fight against tyrrany.
Not All is Lost
There are still ways to make good money in America and abroad. You simply have to look beyond the common narrative that keeps you entrapped and indebted.
I recommend you take stock of your assets and create a 5 to 10 year plan to get ahead. Check out our guide to reach nearly $1m net worth in 5 years.
Watch the video version here:
Sources:
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/15/household-debt-soars-at-fastest-pace-in-15-years-as-credit-card-use-surges-fed-report-says.html https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-personal-savings-have-fallen-off-a-cliff-how-to-boost-your-savings-in-case-of-a-looming-recession-11666722275#:~:text=Adjusted%20for%20inflation%2C%20savings%20are,Federal%20Reserve%20Bank%20of%20St. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/192032#:~:text=Conclusions%20The%20estimated%20number%20of,only%20nonsmokers%20and%20never%2Dsmokers. https://blog.standardprocess.com/5-hard-to-swallow-statistics-about-the-standard-american-diet#:~:text=Processed%20foods%20make%20up%20close,eat%20fast%20food%20every%20day. https://www.statista.com/statistics/203961/wealth-distribution-for-the-us/ https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/09/income-inequality-increased.html#:~:text=The%20ratio%20of%20the%2090th,a%204.9%25%20increase%20from%202020. https://www.businessinsider.com/bottom-half-americans-hold-2-percent-wealth-richest-have-third-2022-9 https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-october-2022-in-one-chart.html https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/ To maintain a population, a country needs a fertility rate of at least 2.1. This means there will be less workers to support an aging population and contribute to social security https://www.cato.org/blog/some-historical-context-fertility-decline#:~:text=More%20recently%2C%20the%20total%20fertility,(1.64)%20during%20the%20pandemic. https://journalistsresource.org/economics/deaths-of-despair-opioid-minimum-wage-suicide/
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